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Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc. (NGVC): Buy a unique high growth (12% hist EPS compounder) organic only grocer at less 15 times NTM P/E

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  Current Price: ~$26 | 24-month Target Price: ~$47 Dividends ~$1.3, TSR: 85% | NGVC Join the mailing list for future blogs:  Click here   Model: Available to download here  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1V5TL1SCiVgI_Yp5FLK7YaRm0RC1kiHnb/edit?usp=sharing&ouid=100501050702536154043&rtpof=true&sd=true   Competition isn’t a 0-sum alpha battle, its adding value where existing players don’t.  NGVC is a great business model with strong moats, supporting a long runway of unit and same store sales with plenty of operational leverage yet to realise.  Why buy an under $600m market cap grocer?! Michael Potter’s Principles on competition aptly summarises NGVC’s (Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc) strategy. They aren’t here to challenge Kroger’s, Walmart, etc. Instead, they are here to serve less price sensitive, and instead, more, value-seeking consumers. They serve organic groceries at relatively competitive prices with relatively superior service, by on average relative
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Pet Valu Holding (TSE: PET): A 40% historical EPS compounder (20% forward base case) available at less than 17 times forward earnings

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Current Price: ~$28 | 20-month Target Price: $46 (CAD), Dividends ~$1, TSR: 68% | TSE: PET Join the mailing list for future blogs:  Click here   Model: Available to download here  ( https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11TebprI-6lYI4yfuTR7p-f1FGQ7Hw7Z1/edit?usp=drive_link&ouid=100501050702536154043&rtpof=true&sd=true )   Company & Industry Overview Pet Valu Holdings was founded in 1976, and acquired by Roark Capital in 2009. Pet Valu Holdings is a franchise pet retail omnichannel operation (unique model), where approximately 72% of all stores are franchise-owned. Pet value is usually the co-leaser or sub-leaser for the units that house these stores. Online sales are shared between stores. Pet Valu most importantly acts as a wholesale arm to these stores, which in turn pay ~6% of sales back to Pet Valu. The Canadian pet industry is a recession-resilient above GDP growth market . This means in a downward economic cycle Pet Valu kept (volume and price each) positive (unl
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FrontDoor inc (FTDR): An opportunity to buy the biggest home warranty player at its lowest valuation in its history at a 41% IRR (2x in 2 years)

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Current Price: ~$35 | 2-year Price Target: $65-$75 | NASDAQ: FTDR Join the mailing list for future blogs:  Click here   Model: Available to download here ( https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1snVZOkAikZAPWc0xeMMFYKBcvGHuSLFZ/edit?usp=drive_link&ouid=100501050702536154043&rtpof=true&sd=true ) Company & Industry Overview FrontDoor Inc. is the owner of American Home Shield (along with other brands), the largest home warranty brand in the States, and collectively with other brands has approximately 2 million warranties out of approximately five million warranties (5 million houses out of 127 million houses) that generated $1.7 billion in 2023 out of a $4 billion industry. They have also recently launched an app, which provides on-demand services and consultation. Four segments of revenue:  Renewals (2nd year of Warranty), DTC (1st year of Warranty acquired directly, website, etc), Real-estate (1st year of Warranty attached to an existing home transaction), others (App,
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